Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.711170 0.819035 0.934341 1.066389 1.213033 1.370498 1.551963
2025-02-23 0.515399 0.652268 0.809414 1.001710 1.229113 1.487880 1.802923
2025-03-02 0.366998 0.511908 0.690754 0.924273 1.217392 1.569260 2.019321
2025-03-09 0.278458 0.428049 0.626206 0.901351 1.266207 1.725697 2.339370
2025-03-16 0.207941 0.354019 0.562131 0.869375 1.299052 1.865270 2.652356
2025-03-23 0.167553 0.314429 0.538386 0.887892 1.400138 2.102062 3.111380
2025-03-30 0.122942 0.257921 0.479999 0.848100 1.415041 2.223995 3.427980
2025-04-06 0.093264 0.218713 0.440994 0.831023 1.459820 2.390387 3.818334
2025-04-13 0.069377 0.183199 0.401021 0.805785 1.488301 2.534523 4.187148
2025-04-20 0.055279 0.162960 0.383881 0.815605 1.572167 2.766783 4.699822
2025-04-27 0.042784 0.142009 0.361009 0.811553 1.632074 2.965990 5.175511
2025-05-04 0.033844 0.126309 0.345245 0.817852 1.709470 3.197606 5.714564
2025-05-11 0.026070 0.110971 0.327998 0.821001 1.785835 3.440133 6.297876
2025-05-18 0.018623 0.092719 0.299591 0.797093 1.810565 3.599378 6.759750
2025-05-25 0.012371 0.074194 0.265068 0.753884 1.793608 3.685982 7.108884
2025-06-01 0.009081 0.064272 0.249947 0.750807 1.853986 3.911508 7.702623
2025-06-08 0.006335 0.054210 0.231182 0.735721 1.888206 4.092379 8.230942
2025-06-15 0.005049 0.050201 0.229476 0.761905 2.010645 4.442299 9.069494
2025-06-22 0.003278 0.041127 0.208161 0.734257 2.015008 4.572386 9.529661
2025-06-29 0.002231 0.035081 0.194801 0.724826 2.057708 4.777201 10.132370
2025-07-06 0.001428 0.029208 0.179456 0.706608 2.078055 4.939262 10.665067
2025-07-13 0.001038 0.026355 0.175012 0.718894 2.169828 5.246557 11.476089
2025-07-20 0.000695 0.022965 0.166703 0.717905 2.229723 5.493197 12.185379